US Shutdown Odds 2026 Hit 75% As Bitcoin Markets Brace For Volatility And Liquidity Shifts

The increased likelihood of the US shutting down in 2026 is again subjecting financial markets to pressure, and crypto hedgers are closely monitoring the possibility of the US government shutting down in 2026 and how it could affect liquidity and sentiment.The federal government is headed to a potential partial shutdown that is causing concern in the equities and digital assets, but the situation is starkly different compared to the situation of the previous year, when they had a long disruption.Six out of twelve spending bills have already been passed, which is an indicator of partial fiscal stability, and experience indicates that 60 per cent of the shoe-at-the-last-minute iambus results in shutdown crises that have been resolved, which is why the wider panic has been so far held down.The traders are pricing a contained disruption instead of a systemic shock, although the uncertainty level is high because political process negotiations are narrowing towards the deadline risk.Prediction platform Polymarket offers a 75 per cent chance of a shutdown occurring on January 31, during the Asian morning, with the overall amount of betting standing at over $13.3 million, noting an increase in conviction among people betting the US government shutting down in 2026.The stalemate has been on the Democratic resistance to the bill that funds the Department of Homeland Security, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying he would not vote on any bill that funds ICE until it is replaced.In case there is no consensus by midnight on January 30, many federal agencies will shut down, increasing the acute short-term impact of the US federal shutdown on both administrative services and market psychology.Such a possible shutdown is quite unlike October 2025, when all 12 appropriations bills were stuck and caused a record 43-day complete shutdown, which caused a liquidity crunch and decreased investor confidence.Six spending bills have already been signed into law in the current cycle, and this means that various departments can go on with their usual activities.According to the Committee of Responsible Federal Budget, Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Commerce, and Energy have been fully funded to run their programmes throughout the fiscal year, and DHS has been left with about 178 billion out of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that can fund its operations.This organisational dissimilarity minimises systemic risk in the short-run, and the worries of recession are contained even with the increasing political anxiety.

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