Bitwise Says Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million – Here’s Why

Bitcoin’s path to US$1 million per coin is no longer a fringe idea. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has put forward a structured, data-driven case for why experts say Bitcoin could reach US$1 million, built on what he describes as reasonably conservative assumptions about the global store of value market.The commentary, shared on 11 Mar 2026, arrives as Bitcoin trades around US$70,245, still more than 44% below its all-time high of US$126,080 reached in October 2025. The gap between here and US$1 million is significant, but Hougan’s argument is that the math, when applied correctly, makes the target more achievable than it first appears.The Bitcoin price prediction by Bitwise rests on a straightforward framework. Hougan’s method involves three steps: estimate the total size of the global store of value market, estimate Bitcoin’s share of that market, and divide by 21 million, the maximum supply of Bitcoin that will ever exist.At present, Bitcoin represents less than 4% of the global store of value market capitalisation of nearly US$40 trillion. At that ratio, Bitcoin would need to capture approximately half of the entire store of value market to reach US$1 million per coin, a figure Hougan acknowledges sounds unreasonable on its surface.The critical variable in Hougan’s argument is that the store of value market is not static. Gold alone has risen approximately 80% over the past year, recently trading around US$5,200 per ounce, bringing its total market capitalisation to approximately US$36 trillion at the time of writing.Hougan argues that if historical growth rates in the store of value market continue, the total market could reach approximately US$121 trillion within 10 years. At that size, Bitcoin would only need to capture 17% of the market to be priced at US$1 million per coin, a far more plausible scenario than capturing half of today’s market.Why experts say Bitcoin could reach US$1 million comes down to more than price targets. Hougan points to structural shifts in how Bitcoin is held and perceived. Growing institutional acceptance, the emergence of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and a gradual decline in volatility are all contributing to Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class.Hougan has followed Bitcoin closely since 2018, when the asset was trading around US$4,000 and US$1 million sounded, by his own admission, absurd. His shift in view reflects not wishful thinking but a reassessment of how large the store of value opportunity has become and how much ground Bitcoin has already covered.Hougan is direct about Bitcoin’s current limitations. The asset is less than 20 years old, and expecting it to behave like a fully mature store of value at this stage of its development is, in his view, unreasonable. The rise to US$1 million will come with continued maturation, not in spite of the asset’s youth but as a direct consequence of it growing into its potential.Bitwise recently predicted that Bitcoin would break its four-year cycle and reach a new all-time high in 2026. Despite a 9% rebound over the past two weeks, the asset remains well below that prior peak, leaving considerable ground to cover before the prediction is validated.

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